Please see the below tropics update from the FDEM State Meteorologist. Please note, the entire East Coast of Florida has the potential to be impacted by Hurricane Dorian. Please be safe and download this most recent tropical briefing.

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Hurricane Dorian

  • As of the 11 AM ET advisory, Hurricane Dorian was located 220 miles north-northwest of San Juan, Puerto Rico, and moving to the northwest at 13 mph. Maximum sustained winds remain near 85 mph, which is a Category 1 Hurricane.
  • Dorian has tracked further northeast than forecast, Dorian will continue moving northwestward over the next couple days before turning more west-northwestward or westward over the weekend.
  • Conditions are favorable for continued organization and strengthening over the next few days. Rapid intensification is within the realm of possibility.
  • Dorian is forecast to be an extremely dangerous MAJOR HURRICANE (lower-end Category 4) as it approaches Florida on Sunday and Monday.
  • The exact track is unknown after Day 4. However, a slower movement is expected near landfall as it moves near and over Florida. A slower movement will increase the heavy rainfall and flash flood/river flood threat.
  • Dorian could also expand in size as it moves toward the Florida Peninsula.
  • Hurricane Hunters will continue to investigate the system regularly over the next few days.

Florida Outlook:

  • Hurricane Dorian does not pose a threat to Florida until Saturday night, at the earliest.
  • The entire Florida Peninsula, Northeast Florida, and the Big Bend are included in the 5-day forecast cone.
  • There are no tropical watches or warnings in effect, but tropical storm or hurricane watches could be issued as early as tonight.
  • Dorian is forecast to be a Major Hurricane (lower-end Category 4) as it approaches Florida on Sunday through Tuesday (Northeast Florida, Central Florida, and/or South Florida).
  • Early next week, Dorian could slow and make a sharp turn to the north. However, where that turn occurs remains uncertain.
  • The rip current risk will be dangerously high for the holiday weekend at all Florida beaches.
  • Minor coastal flooding from the ongoing King Tides is possible along the Florida East Coast with tides running 1-2’ above normal. Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect for Northeast Florida and Coastal Flood Statements for Southeast Florida.
  • Damaging winds, flash flooding, river flooding, storm surge, and isolated tornadoes are all possible later this weekend in the Florida Peninsula. However, it is still too early to give specifics on these threats.
  • Confidence has increased in the intensity forecast this weekend, but the track is uncertain early next week.
  • All locations in Florida should continue to monitor Dorian for possible impacts over the Labor Day Weekend.
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